The Choice between Foreign Direct Investment and Export with Industry Competition and Marginal Cost

Abstract

This paper uses real option theory to explicitly derive an optimal foreign investment rule. In the setting we characterize the investment decisions and give rise to a theoretic analysis of optimal foreign direct investment timing under exchange rate uncertainty with industry competition and firm marginal cost. This paper demonstrates the impact on the relevant economic variables and infer empirical implications to results. The model is extended to include an exit option and externalities, which have implications for divesting FDI and policy. This enriches the literature and captures model policy driven FDI as a dynamic process.