Хураангуй:
This paper analyzes relationship between Shadow Economy and GDP (Gross Domestic
Product) in various way. It focuses on the case of several countries such as Mongolia, Russia
and China during the period of 1991-2015 of about 25 years. Our goal was to find a topic
that is not common and complex to do. Of course find a topic that is common is easy to do
and there are enough reference files could be found. Even though Shadow economy is the
topic that is not commonly chosen as a project and its complex for student project we
decided to stay on it and tried to do research on it. Choosing this kind of topic could open
our eyes and help younger students to do research on it. Even it will help us to manage
something like shadow economy and understand this secret society. The Empirical analysis
of the project will define more interesting results. In conclusion, we suppose that Shadow
Economy is part of the human society and it cannot be all eliminated. All countries have
their own dosage of Shadow Economy. But the main thing is that which level is toxic or
nontoxic for economy. Once it cannot be eliminated we believe the right level or small
amount of shadow economy is not affecting bad for the economy in other words any country
can contain Shadow Economy as their part of economy but they should limit it under the
right parameter.
For reaching our goal we took our data from the Global Economy web source. And the data
shows the relationship between Shadow Economy and GDP. If we look closely, the main
data shows the percentage of black market in GDP of the chosen countries. To find the
answer, we put our data on EVIEWS and run tests including Granger Causality, Vector Auto
Regression, and models such as Regression, Correlation and other statistics. Only percentage
of Shadow Economy in GDP will be not enough, so we took 5 variables. In other words,
there are 5 different variables that will help us to identify the problem.
After the tests we found out some interesting results that are proven on the reality. And 3
countries Mongolia, Russia and China are significantly connected to each other. Affecting
from one to another in different ways can tell that.
